The Henry Dwyer Racing stable has three runners today with FEND OFF, UNDER OATH and THERE YOU ARE running at The Valley.
This meeting was transferred from Ballarat today and is run as a provincial meeting at a metro track. All the same, it’s exciting to for connections to have a runner at the coliseum that is the home of the W.S. Cox Plate.
The track is a Heavy 9 which is underheard of at The Valley most of the time, but it has been a cold and wet few days. The inside few lanes should be advantaged early in the program before it breaks up as the day goes on and jockeys may seek wider lanes. The key to The Valley is momentum – jockeys have to have their horse building momentum down the side of the course before the short, 173m home straight.
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The Valley – Heavy (9)
Race 4 (1.45pm) Ladbrokes Same Race Multi Plate
No.3 FEND OFF – Ben Allen (Barrier 6)
There’s a bit of depth to this middle-distance maiden. FEND OFF has been given a little freshen-up and has had a jump-out at Burrumbeet between runs. He jumped-out quite well, but it was notable that he got his head up over the concluding stages. He now gets out to a decent sort of trip fourth-up for him and he can run an improved race, but he needs to improve significantly to be winning.
In a good race, he might find them too good for him but I am expecting him to improve on his first three career runs to date.
TAB WIN Fixed Odds – $41 (as at 8am)
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Race 8 (3.45pm) Ladbrokes Handicap
No.1 UNDER OATH – Jaden Lloyd a(2) (Barrier 1)
This is a lovely race for UNDER OATH. He was fairly plain last start, but he had been racing really well leading into Sandown and I’m happy to forgive that effort. He’s back a notch in grade here and importantly gets onto his preferred heavy going. He has had three runs on heavy tracks and while they were a long time ago, they resulted in two wins and a very good third. He maps to get a really sweet run from a low draw and with luck coming down the side will be right in the finish.
UNDER OATH is a super winning chance and the best of the three HDR runners today.
TAB WIN Fixed Odds – $5.50 (as at 8am)
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Race 9 (4.15pm) Adapt Australia Handicap
No.11 THERE YOU ARE – Ben Melham (Barrier 9)
THERE YOU ARE is second-up into this after running midfield behind a handy one in OUR WIND SPIRIT at Geelong last start. He didn’t have much luck there at Geelong and will undoubtedly improve for the outing. From the wide draw, he has the tactical speed to roll forward and make his own luck and if anything, this is a slightly weaker race.
He will definitely need some luck in running from the gate, but he is a winning chance in a very open race.
TAB WIN Fixed Odds – $9 (as at 8am)