Warrnambool
Race 1 – Fatal Shot
Jockey – Mitch Aitken
1000m – Barrier 5
Three-year-old gelding Fatal Shot heads to Warrnambool fitter for a first-up run at Warracknabeal five weeks ago. The son of Shooting To Win had a complete ‘forget run’ on that occasion, beginning awkwardly and getting his tongue over the bit in the run. A tongue tie has been applied today to fix that issue, and he finds a lovely surface for his second-up assignment here. Jockey Mitch Aitken draws nicely in gate five and will let his gelding settle where he’s comfortable from the start.
It’s difficult to predict a clear speed map here, though debutant Runaway Soul has shown speed at the jumpouts and draws the inside alley. This galloper looks to have his share of ability and looks ready to go well first-up. Will take beating. Plenty Of Ammo was well-supported on debut back in March but did everything upside-down pre-race, before bleeding during the event. She wasn’t disgraced considering, and recent jumpouts suggest she’s returned well. Cannon finds a new stable and has been the subject of solid market support before his first-up run today. Has jumped out soundly enough. Concede each way chances to Three Grand and debutant Hollywood Ace in an open affair.
Fatal Shot gets every chance to improve today with suitable gear changes in an even race. His work at home has been solid, and connections will be hoping he can bring that effort and application to the races this afternoon. If he does this, he’s a top four chance in a tricky little race.
Currently, Fatal Shot is a $31 chance in the market.
Warrnambool
Race 2 – Elbarad
Jockey – Mitch Aitken
1300m – Barrier 3
Three-year-old galloper Elbarad makes his raceday debut over 1300-metres at Warrnambool this afternoon. The gelded son of Frosted has had three jumpouts in preparation for today, improving with each outing and ready to take the next step in his career. Jockey Mitch Aitken leaves from a nice draw and will let his gelding find his feet early and settle where he’s comfortable in the run.
Eight first-starters are engaged here so the early speed battle will be as intriguing as it is unclear. Sacred Eagle has drawn wide but went forward at his only career start during the May carnival. He battled on well there in heavy conditions, finishing 1.6-lengths behind Scentify, who has been mixing it with horses like Steparty this preparation. That’s very good form for this and on that alone, he should be considered a leading hope here. Villach was long odds on debut at Geelong but ran on well behind subsequent winners. Any improvement from that effort puts him in the mix this afternoon. Asawin has shown ability at the jumpouts and looks forward enough to be competitive, while McCoy races like he’ll relish the extra trip today. Plenty to learn out of this one.
Elbarad will take improvement from whatever he shows today and be better suited out over more ground later in his preparation. He’s shown enough at home to suggest he has talent and the benefit of today’s experience will bring him on nicely for future runs. Happy to watch him today.
Currently, Elbarad is a $23 chance in the market.