The HDR stable has three runners today in AFRIDI, STRATESSA and BRANDERS RULE at Geelong.
Geelong- Soft(7)
Geelong is rated a Soft 7 and with largely fine weather forecast it may well be on the better side of that rating. There has been a good deal of recent racing at Geelong but the track continues to race well. Geelong is a lovely, spacious circuit with a generous 380m home straight that gives those from the tail a chance to wind up. The rail is out 11m for much of the track (9m between 1700-800m mark) and looking at stats in that rail position would suggest on speed horses have a slight statistical advantage with 24% of winners leading or outside leader at the 600m mark.(Form Analyst Matt Welsh)
Race 2 (1:00 pm) Eagles Rock Three-Years-Old Maiden Plate 1347m
No.1 AFRIDI- Mitch Aitken (Barrier 12)
AFRIDI (12) heads to Geelong on Friday where he will make his debut in a 1347m Maiden (Race 2, 1.00pm). He has drawn gate twelve and Mitch Aitken will ride.
AFRIDI should have a solid fitness base for the 1347m here on debut having had three jump-outs leading in. He has shown talent in his respective bits of work and hasn’t really been asked for much effort in any hitout. He has been a touch slow to begin in two of his three jump-outs so that will be something for Mitch Aitken to watch out of the stalls and irrespective of how he jumps I doubt he settles much further forward than midfield. He showed an ability to quicken when asked to do so at Horsham and I think he will be strong at the end of the 1347m on debut. (Form Analyst Matt Welsh)
TAB WIN Fixed Odds – $20 (as at 11am)
Race 7 (3:30 pm) John Orr & Son Master Builders BM64 Handicap 1347M
No.1 BRANDERS RULE- Aaron Lynch (Barrier 2)
BRANDERS RULE (2) heads to Geelong on Friday where he will contest a 1347m BM64 (Race 7, 3.30pm). He has drawn gate two and Aaron Lynch rides.
BRANDERS RULE drops back in trip having stretched out to the mile at Bendigo last time out when leading and fading after having a soft enough time of it in front. This is the first time he has contested a BM64 and his racing this campaign has all been against stronger opposition, so he should appreciate the drop in class. This gelding absolutely relishes tracks with a bit of cut in them – around this Soft 6/7 range being ideal – and putting last start aside he has been in reasonable form this campaign. I liked his first up run at Warrnamboool when hitting the line well over 1200m against the pattern of the day before having little luck when posted deep at Sandown. This looks a suitable race.( Form Analyst Matt Welsh)
TAB WIN Fixed Odds – $13 (as at 11am)
Race 9 (4:30 pm) Sportsbet Bet With Mates Class 2 Handicap 1547M
No.9 STRATESSA- Mitch Aitken (Barrier 6)
STRATESSA (3) heads to Geelong on Friday where she will contest a 1547m BM64 (Race 9, 4.30pm). She has drawn gate three and Mitch Aitken rides.
STRATESSA has drawn a nice gate in three but she does need to jump well enough to make use of it or risk being buried away on the fence. I thought she was pretty plain late at Hamilton last start, albeit in very testing conditions, and both her recent runs have been on really heavy decks which probably isn’t her sweet spot. Getting back onto somewhat better ground here does look a positive, and her best is certainly good enough to be competitive in a BM64 like this. (Form Analyst Matt Welsh)
TAB WIN Fixed Odds – $35 (as at 11am)