Racehorse trainers, like the animals they supervise, are creatures of habit.
If something works well once, they will try it a second time in the hope that the previous success can be duplicated.
Year after year the same lead-up races prove to be signposts for what can happen in the big races to follow.
He may still only be in his early 30s, but Caulfield trainer Henry Dwyer has absorbed the lessons of history.
And, as a result of Saturday’s Caulfield success for his filly Tavi Bay, Dwyer is now planning to follow the same course that brought him his first group 1 winner with Sonntag in the Queensland Derby two years ago.
Tavi Bay won the Jericho Cup in 2018 Handicap, a 2000-metre contest for three-year-olds, to book her ticket to Brisbane for a tilt not at the Derby but the fillies equivalent, the Oaks.
Like Sonntag, who won the same race two years ago, she is a developing stayer on the improve, and Dwyer hopes that she, too, can use the same preparation as a springboard to classic success.
Tavi Bay was bought cheaply in New Zealand (for around $7,000, Dwyer said) by her owners the Shergar Syndicate, and she looks like a real bargain now. The trainer, who landed his second group 1 winner earlier in May when Precious Gem won the Ubet Classic at Morphettville, now intends to take the filly to Queensland this week to prepare for the Oaks on June 4.
The daughter of New Zealand sire Tavistock was partnered on Saturday by Chris Parnham and as this was only her sixth racecourse start, just her third of this preparation and her first try at a middle distance trip there is good reason to hope that there is plenty left in the tank.
“She probably won’t have another run, she’s a pretty clean-winded filly, she is pretty athletic. The race is at Eagle Farm, that will suit her. It’s a challenge to get them going the other way for the first time but it’s a challenge you have to take.”
After a quiet period things have really heated up for the Dwyer yard in the last month.
“You go a couple of months without a winner then you have winners in town, group 1 winners, promising fillies winning and that sort of stuff. There’s no rule to it, but its swings and roundabouts,” Dwyer said.
“Sonntag won this race. We had the Queensland Derby in mind for him that year, he needed to run well in this race to warrant going up there too.
“I thought she was grinding away at the 200m mark, the last 50m was her best, which augurs well for a staying trip.
“The way she ground it out and was strong late was good. She is on the up, not having had a long preparation rather than being on the decline.
Although superstar Winx won the Queensland Oaks last year, regular renewals don’t boast a horse of that quality in the field.
“Most years you probably don’t need to be a star to win up there. She has always had a good bit of quality about her, it’s just been about getting her out in trip. She’s had a few setbacks but now that she is there and on the up it’s a realistic target for her.
“The earlier they get up there the better, they can acclimatise to the warmer weather, work that way of going … if there is three weeks between we would be looking at getting up there this week.
“Precious Gem is up there already, the two of them can stable together.”
Precious Gem is due to go to the sales on June 2 and Dwyer is hopeful that the new owners will leave her in his yard. Her long-term goal is the Tatts Tiara at the end of the Brisbane carnival, but she could also run in the Dane Ripper Stakes before that.
Article from SMH